The rise of AI has become the catalyst for widespread cautionary and pessimistic predictions regarding what the future may hold. Will it outstrip our own intelligence in a way that we can’t control? Could it put masses of workers of out of their jobs?
The latter concern is very valid… there is already talk of certain professions, such as Software Engineers and Translators just to name a couple, evaporating over the coming decade (or perhaps only existing at a senior level, where AI can carry out more ‘junior’ or ‘mid’ level tasks). That’s not to mention the swathes of people employed in more administrative or labour-intensive employment, activities that AI is already demonstrating the propensity to carry out.
It’s not outlandish to suggest that, a few years from now, one-person enterprises – with certain processes put in place – could become multi-million, or even billion, pound businesses without the need to scale their workforce. In that scenario, a priveleged few would become mega-wealthy without any job creation… this raises very real concerns, especially as we are living in a society already filled with huge discontent regarding the growing wealth of the mega-rich at the detriment to everybody else.
But there is another possible eventuality… rather than looking at AI and Automation as something that could cost us work, could it instead provide the opportunity to work less and actually gain more time for personal and leisure pursuits? Surely most of us don’t actually want to work more than is necessary if we can maintain the same quality of life – or better – while working less?
In the 1930s, economist John Maynard Keynes famously – or infamously – predicted that rising productivity levels would allow us to reach a 15 hour working week by 2030, without any hit to our consumption levels (in industralised / ‘developed’ nations). In other words, advancements in working practices and greater automation would allow us to achieve an age of leisure. However, if we all look now at our average working week, it’s safe to say that this utopian sounding era will not be reached by 2030. Or will it (or has it already)?
Economist Vincent Geloso has adopted a different way of analysing Keynes’ prediction (covered here – https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/was-keynes-right-on-short-work-weeks/), by taking a statistical approach and measuring how many leisure hours vs working hours we are likely to spend now compared to the 1930s. His findings show that Keynes actually wasn’t far wrong…
Many of us now enter work much later than in the 1930s; it was almost a given back then that by 18 you’d be in full-time employment, with many starting years earlier. Add to this that life expectancy has risen dramatically, meaning we spend much more time in retirement. And, on a weekly basis, there actually have been improvements – with 45 working hours a week being the average back then, compared to 32 today. Changes in working practices, certain role types declining in prominence while others have risen, and societal / economic conditions have made this possible; with advancements in automation and technology playing no small part in this. Talk to even the hardest working folk in society now, and you’d be hard pushed to find anyone who would willingly swap their current life conditions with somebody from the 1930s.
If we stop analysing our work-leisure balance on a week-by-week basis, and instead look at the likely breakdown across our whole lives, then Keynes’ prediction starts to look accurate… it’s hard to argue against the view that things have improved significantly for the average person.
So, to come back to the earlier question… can we start to look at AI as a force for greater life satisfaction, and more time spent on leisure and with our loved ones while working less, rather than an entity that will rob us of livelihoods? We can’t ignore the danger that a powerful and wealthy minority may run away with the benefits of AI and leave normal people behind… however, with the right controls and steering, tech and AI advancements can make massive tangible improvements to daily lives in a relatively short period of time. The evidence from the last 100 hundred years is there… this has already happened over the course of the last few generations (and this being a period with an economically disastrous World War dropped in, leaving much of Europe on it’s knees).
In the last 100 years, progress in workers’ rights and legislation restricting capitalists from running amock has no doubt also played a part in the improvement to most peoples lives. Here’s to hoping that ‘the powers that be’ can ensure AI is rolled out in a responsible way, from which we can all benefit – it won’t be easy but it is possible!
